Tutorials
The role of the tutorials is to provide a platform for a more intensive scientific exchange amongst researchers interested in a particular topic and as a meeting point for the community. Tutorials complement the depth-oriented technical sessions by providing participants with broad overviews of emerging fields. A tutorial can be scheduled for 1.5 or 3 hours.
Mission-Based Forecasting - Predictive Analytics for Complex Systems
Instructor
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Greg H. Parlier
GH Parlier Consulting
United States
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Brief Bio
A West Point graduate and retired US Army Colonel, Greg is currently President, GH Parlier Consulting. A combat veteran with 5 operational deployments and service in over 20 foreign nations on 12 named operations, he was a paratroop commander in the 82nd Airborne Division for 8 years, air-ground battle staff officer, joint operations planner, and Army strategist. When he retired he was the Army's senior, most experienced Operations Research officer with assignments spanning land warfare analyses, manpower and personnel, program analysis and evaluation, and logistics. He was assistant then associate professor of Operations Research at West Point. For 12 years after retiring, he served on the research staff at the Institute for Defense Analyses where he was an advisor to several foreign governments and senior OR analyst supporting the multi-national forces command in Iraq. He is a distinguished graduate of the US Marine Corps Command and Staff College, National Defense Fellow at MIT, Army War College graduate, and recently was adjunct Professor of Operations Research at NC State University. Dr. Parlier holds advanced degrees in engineering, Operations Research, and international security, a certificate in political philosophy from Oxford, and was among the first to complete MIT Sloan's executive program in Management, Innovation, and Technology. He is past president of the Military Applications Society of INFORMS, was vice president for the Military Operations Research Society, fellow of the Inter-University Seminar on Armed Forces and Society, elected to the International Institute of Strategic Studies, and previously served as program co-chair for ICORES.
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Abstract
This tutorial presents a new demand planning concept for the large-scale global logistics enterprise supporting the US Department of Defense. Effectively integrating production planning, inventory systems, and distribution policies has been a persisting strategic challenge. For nearly three decades the Government Accountability Office has attributed these inadequacies to poor demand forecasting, ineffective inventory management, and inadequate strategic planning. Mission-Based Forecasting (MBF) is a new concept for demand planning which relates resource investment levels and distribution policies directly to mission performance outcomes, in short “resources-to-readiness”. MBF capitalizes on predictive analytics, innovative forecasting methods, condition-based maintenance (CBM), and prognostic algorithms to dramatically improve forecast accuracy, reduce excess inventory, and eliminate costly work-arounds while increasing equipment readiness in military organizations. Originally developed for aviation systems when the author was Deputy Commander for Transformation at the US Army's Aviation and Missile Command, MBF has since been extended to the other Military Services and adapted to ground systems. Theory, practical applications, and recent test results will be presented. Organizational challenges associated with transitioning MBF from concept to reality, and the potential for applying MBF to other enterprise endeavors, will be discussed.
KEYWORDS:
Forecasting, demand planning, enterprise systems, adaptive regression, intermittent demand, condition-based maintenance, Internet-of-Things, predictive and prognostic analytics, management innovation